Source : Barclays Research : Trend of private property chart..

It seems like we are heading for a soft landing after 5 years of strong bull run of property prices.. Do you think it will correct up to 20% from the peak? My humble opinion : Yes. There’s going to be a huge supply of houses coming into the market this year 2014, 2015 and 2016. Many people are upgrading to ECs and private condos because of a strong run in HDB prices over the years. The upgraders to EC have to sell their HDB, people who bought condos have to rent it out when it’s TOP (Either their condo or HDB). There will be a big supply of condos/HDB for rent, HDB for sale, and many BTOs for first timer to apply. Who is going to fill up this resale gap? The locals, PR or foreigners?

Property is like trading. Whenever there’s fear, everyone will try to rush out through a single door, everyone wants to get out/cut loss. But unlike stocks, property is illiquid , it’s not easy to get out should market corrects.. In property prices, it will always be uptrend due to limited land in Singapore. You would need to have holding power to ride out the downs during the property cycle. Nothing goes up forever, property market needs a breather like a stock market.